SEC Football Predictions – Week 10

by Dan M | Posted on Friday, November 1st, 2019

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ROBERT CORTINEZ
RCORTINEZ2@HOTMAIL.COM

LSU is the new #1 team in the land after beating #9 Auburn, while
Alabama slipped to #2 after beating the hapless Hogs by only 41
points, 48-7. LSU’s resume is stronger than Bama’s, with victories
against Auburn, Florida and Texas, but the Crimson Tide will be ready
in Tuscaloosa next week when both teams come in rested after this
week’s bye.
The annual world’s greatest outdoor cocktail party kicks off
this Saturday from the home of the NFL’s Jacksonville Jaguars
featuring #6 Florida vs #8 Georgia. This contest is the SEC game of
the week and also the national game of the week as four of the AP top
5 teams, (LSU, Alabama, Ohio State, Penn State) are off. The
remainder of this week’s SEC games are gutter balls, with lines
ranging from 7.5 on the Mississippi State at Arkansas game to 38.5 on
the Texas San Antonio at Texas A&M contest.
Last week’s SEC games went as expected with the exception of South
Carolina getting blown out by Tennessee.  Along with LSU and Alabama,
Kentucky and Missouri can catch a movie, play putt-putt or watch Peaky
Blinders this Saturday from the couch.
Side note: This reporter’s SEC “win” percentage against the line, is
a respectable 60%. I’ve hovered at or above 60% for the 15 years I’ve
been privileged to pen this column. For the past two seasons I’ve
followed a local college handicapper (M&M) and he’s averaging 73% on
his college picks. Last year he hit a 10 team parlay.  I’m giving my
readers his picks for this week. Just don’t hold it against me if he
tanks, but let me know if his bets were good to you: A&M -38,
Arkansas St. -2, Illinois -20, Marshall -10, Clemson -46, Nevada -3.5,
Boise/San Jose over 59.
Last week results:  Straight 2-3 ATL: 2-3
Season results:  Straight 59-16 ATL:  42-30-3

UTSA (3-4) at Texas A&M (5-3)
Line: Aggies -38 / 53.5
Time/TV: 11:00 a.m / SECN
Step right up to a morning game that bores the entire nation
(other than Aggie fans or Texas San Antonio’s athletic director.) The
NCAA has USTA ranked 116th in total offense and 122nd in passing
offense, averaging mere 69 yards a game with LSU transfer QB Lowell
Narcisse.The UTSA Roadrunners do get a $900,000 check to be
sacrificial lambs in College Station. A&M’s QB, Kellen Mond, who
hails from San Antonio, had his best game of the year in last week’s
49-30 beat-down of Mississippi State. The Aggie’s Mond threw for 3
TD’s and ran for another, giving him total 19 TD’s on the season thus
far. The Aggies had the toughest schedule in the NCAA, having already
faced #2 Alabama, #4 Clemson, #11 Auburn with remaining games against
#1 LSU and #8 Georgia. This win gets A&M to a bowl destination but not
one that will appease Aggie nation.
Pick: Texas A&M 48  UTSA 13

#8 Georgia (6-1) at #6 Florida (7-0)
Line: Bulldogs -6.5 / 44.5
Time/TV: 2:30 / CBS
The Dan Mullen led Gators get no respect from the book in Vegas.
The #6 Gators are a touchdown underdog despite their only loss being
on the road to #1 and undefeated LSU. Georgia’s one loss was at home
to South Carolina who is 3-5 on the season. Georgia’s offense hasn’t
been as potent as last year’s Jake Fromm’s edition. QB Fromm threw for
30 TDS last year but has thrown for only 9 TDs with 3 interceptions in
8 games this year. Dawg RB De’Andre Swift has 752 yards and is
averaging just under 7 yards a carry which along with Georgia’s stout
as hell defense, makes this team one to be reckoned with.
Florida has been getting their money’s worth out of fourth year junior
QB Kyle Trask who has patiently been waiting for this moment. Trask
has a 72% completion rate and threw for a Florida Gator record, 18
straight completions against Tennessee. Trask is a calming presence
for the Florida offense and HC Dan Mullens has always been a
QB-whisperer. The #25 ranked Gator defense has been described as
ferocious but the Dawg defense comes in at #7 in the nation and has
been the marrow of this year’s team. Predicting a Jake Fromm second
coming with some Kirby Smart trickery at the World’s Largest Outdoor
Cocktail Party.
Pick: Georgia 30  Florida 27

Mississippi State (3-5) at Arkansas (2-6)
Line: Bulldogs -7.5 / 58.5
Time/TV: 3:00 / SECN
The Razorbacks are in the midst of a five game losing streak while
Mississippi State has lost four in a row.  Hog HC Chad Morris called
out a “mostly” guarantee win over State in a press conference last
Monday. The hard- to- follow babble from Coach Morris will most
certainly be locker room fodder for Mississippi State as HC Joe
Morehead’s seat is as hot as the aforementioned Nostradamus’s seat.
Since Morris’s arrival from SMU, where he was 14-22, the Hogs are 4-16
overall and 0-13 in SEC conference games. At least Bulldog HC Joe
Morehead went to the Outback Bowl last year and finished 8-5 in his
first year, albeit with former coach Dan Mullen’s players. The Hogs QB
situation is dismal with third stringer John Steven Jones taking over
from “heralded” QB’s Nick Starkel and Ben Hicks. The Bulldogs have
Arkansas, Alabama, Alcorn State and Ole Miss left to play. A win
against Arkansas begins the journey to a Bulldog bowl game in 2019.
Pick: Mississippi State 28  Arkansas 24

Ole Miss (3-5) at #11 Auburn (6-2)
Line: Tigers -19 / 52.5
Time/TV: 6:00 / ESPN
Auburn stayed competitive with LSU last week only losing by three
points, 23-20. Auburn’s freshman QB, Bo Nix was rattled a little bit
in Death Valley but maintained his composure and made some big throws
to keep the game close.  Auburn’s defense kept LSU scoreless on a red
zone trip for the first time this season. Ole Miss was off last week,
but played hard in a 24-17 loss to Texas A&M in week 8.  Despite
having the highest compensated coaching staff in America, the Rebs
can’t seem to get it done in crunch time and still have to face LSU
and Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.  Ole Miss won’t get it done on
the Plains as the Gus Bus hits another gear and keeps rolling for War
Eagle nation.
Pick: Auburn 33 Ole Miss 17

UAB (6-1) at Tennessee (3-5)
Line: Vols -12 / 48
Time/TV: 6:00 / ESPNU
The Alabama Birmingham Blazers are ranked 5th in the nation in
total defense but have yet to play any heavyweight muscle this season.
The Blazers are tied for second in the Conference USA west division
with their only loss was to East Division leader, Western Kentucky.
Tennessee is on a mild win streak with conference victories over
Mississippi State and South Carolina before playing its last
non-conference game this Saturday. The Volunteers should win this game
and have an excellent shot at winning out with only Kentucky, Missouri
and Vanderbilt left to play. Seven wins and bowl game would
definitely cool HC Jeremy Pruett’s hot seat in Knoxville for another
year.
Pick: Tennessee 37 UAB 14

Vanderbilt (2-5) at South Carolina (3-5)
Line: Gamecocks -15 / 51
Time/TV: 6:30 / SECN
This game is the enigma bowl. The Gamecocks beat then #2 Georgia
in Athens and promptly got out coached and outplayed in losses to
Florida and Tennessee. Vanderbilt appeared to be wrestling for the
“worst team in the SEC” mantle and then goes out and beats the
Pretender, Kelly Bryant’s Missouri Tigers 24-17, last week.  The
Commodore’s HC Derek Mason knows he has to do more with less at
Vanderbilt and relishes the job. South Carolina’s HC Will Muschamp
acts like a spoiled kid half the time and needs to step up his game.
Pick: South Carolina 31  Vanderbilt 20

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