NFL Conference Championship

by Dan M | Posted on Saturday, January 23rd, 2016

NFL_playoffs_logo
By Elliott Harrison
nfl.com

Which is the better game this weekend?
Love championship weekend, but this year is special. The NFC
Championship Game features what are inarguably the two best teams in
the conference. And while you could argue the Steelers (when healthy)
belong over the Broncos in terms of quality, it’s quality viewing to
see a championship defense take on the defending Super Bowl champs …
led by perhaps the greatest quarterback in NFL history.
Speaking of great matchups, I asked the Twitter masses in this
week’s Power Rankings which game should be included in the top
postseason contests of the last five years. Check the Packers’ blurb
for my preliminary list. The overwhelming omission in fans’ eyes was a
matchup that we also saw this past Saturday …
Yep, that game was stellar. Mike Adams, man. Arizona could’ve used
him late last Saturday, too.
The Cardinals outlasted Green Bay last Saturday in the most
entertaining contest of the 2015 season. Of course, that sets up the
matchup we’ve been waiting for all season in Charlotte. Now, let’s get
to it!
(Elliot Harrison went 4-0 on his predictions for the Divisional Round,
giving him a record of 158-106 so far this season.)
New England(12-4) at Denver(12-4)
Sunday, 2:05 CBS
Line: Patriots -3 / 44.5

All the chatter regarding the AFC Championship Game centers
around Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning. Appropriate, given the historical
significance of these two going at it … again. Brady is 11-5 versus
Manning-led teams, but interestingly enough, he’s lost two of the
three AFC title bouts. The one win was significant: 24-14 over the
Colts at Foxborough in the 2003 postseason, with Manning throwing four
picks, including three to Ty Law. (Why no Hall consideration for that
guy?! Conversation for another time.) After the game, Bill Polian,
who was Indy’s general manager at the time, complained to the league
about the Patriot linebackers redirecting Colts receivers, thus
inspiring a “reemphasis” of the illegal-contact rule. Enjoy all those
automatic first downs, people.
Of which the Broncos are going to need a few. Especially if the
run game can’t get going. When these two teams faced off in November,
C.J. Anderson and Co. were stuck in the mud — that is, while Dont’a
Hightower was in the game. With Hightower on the field, Denver ran 16
times for 46 yards and zero scores. When Hightower departed with an
injury, however, Denver went nuts running the ball, racking up 133
yards and three touchdowns on 16 carries. Don’t forget that Jamie
Collins missed that Week 12 matchup as well.
So with the Patriots’ offense at mostly full strength, you know
they will be able to at least move the ball on a stout Broncos
defense, even if getting much more than 20 points will be difficult.
Question is, can Manning carry Denver if Anderson and Ronnie Hillman
are stymied? The thinking here is no.
Pick: New England by 4 / 24-20
Arizona (13-3) at Carolina (15-1)
Sunday, 5:40 FOX
Line: Panthers -3 / 47.5

Maybe Carson Palmer versus Cam Newton doesn’t carry the same
juice as Brady v. Manning. This juice has a bit more pulp, though.
Palmer throws the deep ball more than almost any quarterback in the
league (he had the third-most completions of 20 yards or greater)
despite the fact that the Cardinals tapped the brakes in several big
wins this season. On the other side, you have a quarterback who has
not only hurt opponents down the field, but still is a huge factor in
the run game. As Arizona front man Bruce Arians said this week, you
don’t see a lot of quarterbacks running “Power” for their team.
Newton’s ability causes the defense to play 11 on 11, because defenses
must respect the quarterback’s ability to run, whereas the quarterback
on most teams is merely the guy who hands off or executes run fakes.
Basically, Cam is the anti-Bradford.
Now that we got that squared away, this matchup comes down to
how the Cardinals’ secondary fares against Carolina’s receiving corps.
If the Honey Badger-less defense struggled against the Packers’
wideouts, how will it fare against the Panthers’ group? Any team
facing Carolina figures to have an advantage, namely: its DBs > Corey
Brown, Ted Ginn Jr. and Co. Yet, Jeff Janis, Jared Abbrederis and
tight end Richard Rodgers made a lot of big plays for Green Bay versus
the Cardinals — particularly Janis. When you consider that Carolina
tight end Greg Olsen is better than all of these guys, it could spell
trouble for Arizona.
Of course, that presupposes the Panthers’ secondary can contain
Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown. Here are a couple of
gems from the NFL Media Research team:
– Larry Fitzgerald lined up for 505 plays out of the slot this
season (including the playoffs), totaling 53 catches for 626 yards.
Why is this important? Because Josh Norman almost never covers the
slot.
– Arizona led all road teams in points per game, yards per game and
passing yards per game. I would say that is relevant.
– These two teams finished ranked first and second in takeaways this
season. The Panthers, who had the most, also led the league in points
off takeaways. This game might come down to which quarterback makes
the fewest mistakes.
I think that quarterback will be Cam Newton. And I think the
better quarterback in Denver — Tom Brady — will prevail in that
contest. What a matchup we’re getting for Super Bowl 50.
Pick: Panthers by 2 / 30-28

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